Decomposition of Late Fertility Dynamics across Italian Regions in the Period 1955-2000
Piero Giorgi, Università di Teramo
Marija Mamolo, Vienna Institute of Demography and Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
The analysis focuses on regional differentials in the process of fertility ageing in Italy during the period 1955-2000 and investigates whether regions are homogenous as regards late fertility dynamics. We use a decomposition model to discriminate the effect of different fertility components (i.e. fertility intensity and timing, by birth order) on the evolution of the proportion of fertility realized at age 30+ (%TFR30+). We find out that the rise of %TFR30+ is initially related to the decrease of fertility intensity at younger ages. Since the mid 1980s an increase in the fertility at age 30+ is noticed. Only then the increase in the proportion of fertility realized at age 30+ is associated with an effective increase of the fertility at older ages. The multiway factor analysis confirms the presence of persistent differences in late fertility dynamics across Italian regions and there seems to be a diverging pattern between regional groupings.