Incorporating Nativity and Education into California Population Projections: Description and Comparison of the Inputs to and Results of Projections to the California Population, 2000-2050

Henry Brady, University of California, Berkeley
Michael Hout, University of California, Berkeley
Jon Stiles, University of California, Berkeley
Shannon Gleeson, University of California, Berkeley

California has experienced immense shifts in demographic composition in recent decades, stemming from patterns of international immigration. Increases in populations which have traditionally experienced less educational success account for much of the past and anticipated growth. Coupled with differing returns to education by ethnicity, these shifts have important implications for individual well-being, demand for state services and state revenues. Using a projection methodology which incorporates educational attainment and nativity in addition to the standard elements of age, race/ethnicity, and sex, we examine the trends in composition of cohorts in the ages attending secondary and post-secondary school. We then use these projections to model the effects of four different regimes of student progress in the educational pipeline on state investments in post-secondary education and subsequent financial returns to the state.

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Presented in Session 163: Demography and Education Policy