Aging and Hospitalization Expenditure in Public Health: a Decomposition Analysis for Two Brazilian Metropolitan Areas

Simone Wajnman, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Claudia Berenstein, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Changes in the population's age structure, due to population aging, lead to questions concerning health expenditures. Brazil is a country in the process of population aging due to rapid fertility decline and mortality rates now falling to the older groups. The goal of this paper is to characterize Brazilian public health expenditures for men by age group, decomposing total hospitalization expenditures into price, utilization rate and age composition effects in 2000. In order to verify the long-term potential effect of population aging, this same decomposition is carried out simulating the effect of the age structure projected for the year 2050. Hospitalization registries to the metropolitan cities of Curitiba and Belém are used. The choice of these cities is aimed at establishing a counterpoint between regions with very different levels of socio-economic development and morbidity profiles.

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Presented in Session 160: Understanding the Impact of Population Aging on Future Health Care Cost